India with its 1.43 billion people is now inarguably the most populous nation in the world.[1] Of these 68%[2] (or about 970 million people) are in the working age of 15 to 64 years of age. The unemployment rate stood at 6.6% in 2021-22.  As many as a whopping 42% of India’s graduates under 25 were unemployed in the same period.[3] Does the advent of AI-encompassing technologies like Generative AI threaten to inflate this number to catastrophic proportions? What does the future hold for India's unemployed millions (35 million in both 2021 and 2022)?[4] In a world of global uncertainties and changing power dynamics as well as realigning global supply chains, the state of the Indian economy and by extension its ability to provide gainful employment to millions of people of working age is an area of pressing concern. The rollout of AI in India is in its initial stages but has nevertheless significantly affected employment in some sectors on account of its ability to automate several routine tasks. At the same time, it has created new opportunities in AI-related job functions. According to CNBC outsourced coders based out of India are slated to lose their jobs in about two years.[5] That may sound worrisome, but on the other hand, a survey conducted by the leading job site Indeed found that Indian companies and employers hold a positive outlook on the impact of AI on jobs. As many as 85% of the Indian companies who participated in the survey believed that AI would impact the job scene positively in the short term (next 5 years).[6] This is borne out by the fact that the advent of AI has led to the creation of a whole host of opportunities in engineering, data science and machine learning, putting a huge premium on people possessing the required skill set. World Economic Forum assumes that AI will create 12 million more jobs for people than the ones it will displace. India is fortuitously placed to capitalize on it because it is home to 416000 AI professionals (August 2023) figures against a demand of about 629000 such people. This figure is likely to hit 1 million by 2026 if one goes by a report by the Wheebox National Employability Test.[7] Cause for anxiety The promise of availability of plentiful employment across the short-term horizon notwithstanding there is genuine anxiety amongst employees and job seekers in the country about the impact of AI on their future prospects. These pertain to the need for them to reskill or upskill to stay relevant. Then there is the ever-present gnawing fear of facing redundancy on account of the adoption of AI. For instance, the launch of Chat GPT in November 2022 made a whole host of professionals across the spectrum ranging from programmers and financial advisors to accountants and legal assistants fear for their jobs. People would naturally feel alarmed when leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs anticipate AI impacting if not altogether eliminating as many as 300 million jobs.[8] Conclusion Viewed objectively, the adoption of AI by businesses in India will require some realignment regarding roles and the need for reskilling but will end up creating way more opportunities than any marginal displacements. It opens up huge opportunities for savvy entrepreneurs to leverage it to offer way better products and offer far more efficient services. Doing so will create more employment not just by way of AI professionals needing to be deployed, but also by creating whole new categories of products and services, that one can't even conceive of right now. When computers first arrived on the scene people thought that banks would stop hiring people, but the sector realigned itself and expanded like never before, giving rise to the fintech industry that is revolutionizing banking services in ways not thought possible in the past. The future is bound to be good for the youth of this country- Artificial Intelligence will ensure that it is so. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/ [2] [2] https://www.businesstoday.in/india-at-100/story/inclusive-india-2047-empowering-the-demographic-dividend-395359-2023-08-24 [3] https://indianexpress.com/article/business/42-3-of-graduates-under-25-unemployed-finds-latest-state-of-working-india-report-8949124/ [4] https://www.newindianexpress.com/web-only/2023/Jul/29/the-19-million-plus-question-has-finding-a-job-in-india-gotten-harder-or-easier-2599577.html [5] https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/ai-will-take-away-jobs-of-outsourced-coders-in-india-in-next-2-years-stability-ai-ceo-390384-2023-07-19 [6] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/mid-career/ai-to-have-positive-short-term-impact-on-jobs-finds-global-survey/articleshow/104471561.cms?from=mdr [7] https://www.livemint.com/ai/artificial-intelligence/ai-in-india-jobs-evolved-not-erased-opportunity-and-reskilling-key-experts-claim-11703326684794.html [8] https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/ai-anxiety-workers-fret-over-uncertain-future/article67157022.ece

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment in India

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Vipin Labroo

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