Starlink Saved Tonga. Now Amazon’s Kuiper Wants In

A follow-up to Elon Musk's Starlink May Be the Better Option for Internet in the Pacific Islands

The New Player in Low Earth Orbit

I was engaged on a post via LinkedIn and my response "For sure there will be, its just a natural phenomena for bubbles when there is opportunity. But I don't think Amazon's Kuiper and SpaceX's Starlink projects are get-rich-quick schemes. I'm also not against submarine cable projects, but in the Pacific Islands context, it's just common sense, it doesn't make sense to invest millions on another submarine cable when utilization is in logarithmic growth." inspired me to write this piece.

The satellite internet landscape is evolving rapidly. While Starlink has been dominating headlines and market share in the Pacific region with approximately 8,000 satellites already in orbit, Amazon's Project Kuiper has finally made its long awaited entrance into the arena. On April 28, 2025, Amazon launched its first batch of 27 satellites for its Kuiper broadband internet constellation from Florida, kicking off the deployment of an internet-from-space network that will rival SpaceX's Starlink.

This development comes at a critical time for Pacific Island nations like Tonga, which have been traditionally dependent on submarine cables for international connectivity. With Kuiper's service expected to become available later this year, the justification for expensive infrastructure projects like Tonga's second international submarine cable deserves serious reconsideration.

Kuiper vs. Starlink: The Competition Heats Up

Amazon's entry into the satellite internet market represents the first significant competition for Starlink in the Pacific region. While Starlink currently dominates the low Earth orbit satellite internet market, controlling almost two thirds of all active satellites, Amazon's Kuiper is positioned to become one of the few companies that can compete head on with Musk's operation. The Kuiper deployment has been delayed more than a year, but with service availability expected later this year, Starlink has already been making aggressive moves to secure its market position. Most notably, Starlink is also currently offering zero cost hardware for customers in some regions i.e. a clear strategic response to Kuiper's impending arrival.

This hardware subsidy significantly lowers the barrier to entry for potential Starlink customers. In regions like the Pacific Islands, where initial equipment costs have been a significant obstacle to adoption, this move could accelerate Starlink's penetration rate substantially. Amazon is positioning Kuiper as a viable alternative, with company executives seeing their deep consumer product experience and established cloud computing business as potential advantages over Starlink.

The Tonga Case Study: Questioning the Second Cable

Tonga provides a fascinating case study of how LEO satellite services are disrupting traditional telecommunications infrastructure planning. The nation has been pursuing a second international submarine cable, with the primary justification being increased capacity and redundancy for its growing internet needs. This comes against a backdrop of repeated submarine cable failures that have left the country digitally isolated multiple times in recent years.

However, this justification for a second cable is becoming increasingly questionable in light of recent developments:

1. Rising Starlink Adoption: The influx of Starlink terminals in Tonga is steadily increasing, despite regulatory challenges. Starlink initially entered Tonga following the devastating Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption in January 2022, when Elon Musk donated 50 terminals to help restore communications. Since then, many residents and businesses have come to rely on the service, particularly during cable outages.
2. Competitive Pricing Pressure: With Starlink eliminating hardware costs and Kuiper soon to enter the market, we can expect competitive pricing that will further accelerate LEO satellite adoption across the Pacific.
3. Inverse Relationship to Cable Utilization: As more users shift to LEO satellites, submarine cable capacity utilization will naturally decrease - potentially in a logarithmic pattern as LEO adoption grows exponentially.

The Mathematical Reality

The relationship between these technologies follows a clear mathematical pattern. As LEO capacity utilization increases exponentially (driven by zero hardware costs and increased competition), submarine cable capacity utilization will decrease logarithmically. This inverse relationship raises profound questions about the economic viability of a second submarine cable.

Tonga has experienced at least three significant cable outages in recent years, with the latest occurring in June-July 2024 when an earthquake damaged the domestic submarine cable. During these outages, Starlink has proven vital for maintaining connectivity, particularly in outer islands. According to local reports, the service became "the best thing that ever happened" for some remote areas, with businesses and individuals sharing connections due to the uncapped data limits.

If current trends continue, Tonga may find itself in the position of having invested millions in a second cable that serves a diminishing percentage of the nation's international internet traffic. The capital expenditure may be difficult to justify when compared to the rapidly declining costs of satellite based alternatives. Amazon's Kuiper Project will only accelerate this economic shift.

Broader Implications for Pacific Infrastructure Planning

This situation has implications beyond just Tonga. Throughout the Pacific Islands, nations have been planning telecommunications infrastructure based on pre-LEO satellite assumptions. These plans may need substantial revision in light of:

1. Accelerated Technology Adoption: Zero hardware costs will drive faster adoption curves than previously modeled. Amazon's entry with Kuiper will further accelerate this trend, as the company aims to provide tens of millions of its terminal devices for under USD$400 each.
2. Competitive Market Forces: The Starlink-Kuiper competition will likely drive down service costs while improving performance. Amazon has already secured deals in several countries, and Kuiper has reportedly received significant interest from governments and enterprises eager to work with another satellite internet operator.
3. Changing Usage Patterns: As more residential and business users adopt satellite services, the profile of submarine cable users may shift primarily toward specialized applications. Tonga's experience shows that during cable outages, satellite services have proven essential for everything from business operations to emergency communications.

Addressing Data Sovereignty with VPN Tunneling

As Pacific Island nations consider LEO satellite services like Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper Project, data sovereignty emerges as a critical concern. Data sovereignty refers to the concept that digital data is subject to the laws of the country where it physically resides. In a LEO satellite system, when satellites collect data and relay it to ground stations, many countries have strict data sovereignty policies that don't allow sensitive data to be transmitted outside national borders. This presents unique challenges for satellite internet services, which often route data through ground stations in various countries.

VPN tunneling offers a promising solution to address these data sovereignty concerns. By implementing VPN technology:

1. Encrypted Data Transmission: LEO networks can ensure data is transmitted securely with end-to-end encryption and adherence to strict data sovereignty laws, keeping sensitive information safe and within jurisdiction.
2. Data Residency Control: Through strategic VPN configuration, organizations can ensure data is routed only through approved jurisdictions and ground stations that comply with local regulatory requirements.
3. Compliance with Local Regulations: Secure VPN connections help organizations meet regulatory compliance requirements, such as GDPR or HIPAA, by ensuring sensitive data is always transferred over encrypted channels.
4. Enhanced Security: VPN tunneling adds an additional layer of security beyond what the satellite providers offer natively, protecting against potential interception of satellite communications.

For Tonga and other Pacific nations, implementing these solutions could address regulatory concerns that have led to tensions with satellite providers. Rather than blocking services like Starlink entirely (as attempted in July 2024), governments could establish regulatory frameworks that require VPN tunneling for certain types of data or users, ensuring compliance with local laws while still benefiting from satellite connectivity.

Existing Data Sovereignty Solutions for LEO Satellite Services

Many countries have already implemented various approaches to address data sovereignty concerns with LEO satellite services. These solutions range from regulatory frameworks to technical implementations:

1. Regulatory Frameworks and Licensing Requirements

In order to offer satellite services in any nation-state, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) regulations and long-standing international treaties require that landing rights be granted by each country jurisdiction, and within a country, by the national communications regulators. As a result, even though Starlink has near-global reach at latitudes below approximately 60°, broadband services can only be provided in 40 countries as of September 2022.

Canada was one of the first countries to approve Starlink, with Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada announcing regulatory approval in November 2020. In the Philippines, Starlink entered the market after the country enacted a landmark legislative change about all-foreign allowance of company ownership in regard to utility entities such as internet and telecom companies.

2. Local Ground Station Requirements

For LEO satellites collecting data from ground terminals, strict data sovereignty policies require that they cannot relay data to just any ground station - they must route it to one that meets the requirements of the applicable sovereignty policy.

Countries like China, Russia, and members of the European Union have been particularly assertive in requiring local infrastructure:

Russia implemented payments data localization as part of creating its own Russian payment system after international sanctions in 2014.

Similarly, the EU's data strategy pushes for cloud providers owned and operated in Europe, showing how data sovereignty concerns extend to satellite services.

3. VPN and Encryption Solutions

Various VPN protocols like PPTP, L2TP, and IPSec can be deployed to create secure tunnels for satellite communications, though they present challenges for performance optimization since encrypted packets cannot benefit from TCP acceleration normally used in satellite communications.

SSL-VPNs offer particular advantages for satellite communications as they can connect sites to data centers while limiting access to specific applications on specific servers, offering more controlled security than traditional VPN approaches that give users access to the entire remote data center LAN.

4. International Cooperation Frameworks

A new dimension of "Tech Diplomacy" or "Techplomacy" is emerging to address critical technologies like LEO satellite internet. This involves dialogue between states and private tech industry to ensure national security, economic competitiveness, and technological sovereignty.

Implementation Challenges

Despite these approaches, significant challenges remain:

1. Technical Complexity: Routing satellite data based on sovereignty requirements while maintaining performance is technically challenging.
2. Conflict with Business Models: LEO operators' global infrastructure design doesn't easily accommodate country-by-country data handling requirements.
3. Regulatory Fragmentation: The lack of international standards creates compliance difficulties for operators.
4. Verification and Enforcement: Countries struggle to verify whether satellites are actually complying with data sovereignty requirements.

Developing nations face particular challenges due to the current geopolitical and economic hegemony of developed states in standard-setting for LEO broadband, raising questions about jurisdictional challenges and digital sovereignty.

For Tonga and other Pacific nations, these existing solutions offer potential pathways to address data sovereignty concerns while still benefiting from the connectivity advantages of LEO satellite services.

Blockchain Technology: A Secure Layer for LEO Satellite Data Sovereignty

As LEO satellite services like Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper Project expand their global footprint, blockchain technology is emerging as a promising solution to address data sovereignty concerns. Blockchain - a decentralized, immutable digital ledger system - offers several unique advantages that can help Pacific Island nations maintain control over their data while benefiting from satellite connectivity.

How Blockchain Addresses Data Sovereignty in LEO Networks

1. Decentralized Authentication and Control

Researchers have developed blockchain-based authentication protocols specifically for LEO satellite networks that solve the problem of user access authentication during frequent satellite switching. These protocols address the challenge of long pause times in satellite services caused by user access authentication when satellites and ground users frequently switch connections.

This approach is particularly valuable for Pacific Island nations concerned about foreign control of their data. Rather than relying on centralized authentication systems controlled by satellite providers, a blockchain-based system could be governed by local authorities while still maintaining interoperability with the satellite network.

2. Smart Contracts for Data Privacy Protection

Recent innovations include blockchain-based privacy protection protocols using smart contracts in LEO satellite networks, which solve privacy challenges during cross-platform information dissemination. These solutions are becoming increasingly important as future satellite networks involve multiple institutions and platforms, making privacy protection during information dissemination across management entities a significant challenge.

For Tonga and other Pacific nations, smart contracts could be programmed to enforce specific data sovereignty requirements, such as preventing certain types of sensitive data from being transmitted outside national jurisdiction or ensuring that data processing occurs within approved locations.

3. Verifiable Data Routing Control

One of the key advantages of blockchain for LEO satellite services is its ability to create verifiable, tamper-proof records of data routing:

Blockchain in satellite communications leverages distributed ledger technology, smart contracts, and advanced encryption methods to create robust and secure communication networks. This decentralized structure prevents single points of failure and makes it harder for adversaries to disrupt or manipulate communication channels.

In practice, this means Pacific nations could verify that their data is being routed according to sovereignty requirements, with an immutable record of compliance that can be audited independently.

4. Sovereignty-Agnostic Distribution Networks

Blockchain technology in space can provide "a global distribution network that is persistent and sovereignty agnostic," allowing for secure satellite operations without compromising national data controls.

This approach aligns perfectly with the needs of Pacific Island nations seeking to balance global connectivity with local control of their data and digital resources.

Implementation Approaches

Several implementation approaches are being developed and tested:

1. Satellite-Based Blockchain Nodes: Advanced satellites equipped with processing capabilities can serve as blockchain nodes, creating a fully decentralized network. Sharding technology can be applied to improve the scalability and processing efficiency of the system by dividing the blockchain network into multiple side chains, reducing network congestion and increasing transaction throughput.
2. Hybrid Ground-Space Systems: Some implementations involve a combination of ground-based IoT and LEO satellite constellations, enhancing data transmission efficiency and reliability by leveraging blockchain technology for secure and verified data transactions.
3. Cryptocurrency-Inspired Models: Using technologies developed for cryptocurrency networks, LEO satellite systems can implement fast-switching between satellite links via distributed access authentication while reliably logging all information onto the blockchain.

Benefits for Pacific Island Nations

For Pacific Island nations like Tonga, blockchain based data sovereignty solutions offer several specific benefits:

1. Local Control Without Infrastructure Investment: Developing countries can benefit from blockchain in satellites by addressing challenges like determining ownership and registering land and identity without needing huge investments in ground networks.
2. Enhanced Security: Blockchain based systems can enhance the physical layer security in LEO satellite systems, ensuring that data remains protected from interception or tampering during transmission.
3. Reduced Dependency on Foreign Infrastructure: By establishing blockchain based data sovereignty systems, Pacific nations can reduce their dependency on foreign controlled infrastructure while still benefiting from global connectivity.
4. Resilience During Outages: Distributing blockchain via satellite ensures that critical services remain available even during internet outages, such as when submarine cables fail.

The Path Forward

While blockchain technology offers promising solutions for data sovereignty in LEO satellite networks, implementation challenges remain. Pacific Island nations should consider:

1. Developing regional blockchain standards specifically designed for satellite data sovereignty
2. Investing in local blockchain expertise and infrastructure
3. Collaborating with LEO satellite providers to implement blockchain based solutions
4. Establishing regulatory frameworks that recognize blockchain verified data compliance

By embracing blockchain technology as a secure layer for LEO satellite services, Pacific Island nations can chart a path toward digital sovereignty that doesn't require choosing between connectivity and control.

The Path Forward

For Pacific Island nations, the wisest approach may be to adopt a more flexible, hybrid strategy that:

• Pauses or scales back submarine cable projects pending further market development
• Embraces LEO satellite services with appropriate VPN tunneling and blockchain solutions for data sovereignty
• Reserves submarine cable capacity for specific high bandwidth, low latency applications
• Creates regulatory frameworks that encourage competition between satellite providers while ensuring compliance with local laws

This approach recognizes the reality that satellite technologies like Starlink have already demonstrated their value in crisis situations. During Tonga's multiple cable outages, Starlink proved essential for maintaining connectivity, especially in remote areas. By addressing data sovereignty concerns through technical solutions rather than outright bans, Pacific nations can integrate these technologies into their resilience planning while protecting national interests.

The Kuiper Project's entry into the market will only strengthen the case for this hybrid approach, as competition between providers will likely drive innovation in data sovereignty solutions as well.

Conclusion

The entry of Amazon's Kuiper Project into the LEO satellite internet market marks a significant inflection point for connectivity in the Pacific. With Amazon launching its first 27 satellites on April 28, 2025, after a series of delays, and Starlink already aggressively cutting hardware costs to zero, the justification for traditional submarine cable investments requires thorough reassessment.

For Tonga specifically, the second international submarine cable project should be carefully reevaluated in light of changing market dynamics. The country has already experienced firsthand both the vulnerability of submarine cables and the resilience offered by satellite services. The exponential growth in LEO satellite capacity utilization and corresponding logarithmic decline in submarine cable utilization presents a compelling case for reconsidering large infrastructure investments.

As this competitive landscape continues to evolve, with Amazon planning to deploy a total of 3,236 satellites for its Kuiper Project and facing a deadline from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy half its constellation by mid 2026, Pacific Island nations have a rare opportunity to leapfrog traditional infrastructure constraints and embrace a more resilient, competitive, and possibly more economical connectivity future.

References and Further Reading

LEO Satellite Market and Competition

1. Amazon launches first Kuiper internet satellites, taking on Starlink - Reuters, April 28, 2025.
2. Amazon Kuiper launches first satellites to take on SpaceX's Starlink - CNBC, April 9, 2025.
3. Amazon's Project Kuiper: Launch Date, Cost, & Analysis - Satellite Internet, November 21, 2024.
4. Starlink - Wikipedia - Provides information on Starlink's international regulatory approvals and deployment.
5. The Next Frontier: LEO Satellites for Internet Services - TechnoEconomy Blog, March 14, 2024.

Pacific Islands Connectivity Case Studies

6. Elon Musk's Starlink May Be the Better Option for Internet in the Pacific Islands - HackerNoon, my previous analysis on this topic.
7. Safety fears in outer islands as Tonga blocks Starlink during cable blackout - Matangi Tonga, July 11, 2024.
8. Tonga's fragile connectivity: a wake-up call amid cable cut crisis - Talanoa o Tonga, August 28, 2024.

Data Sovereignty Regulations and Frameworks

9. Regulating the Next Generation of Satellites - Boston Consulting Group, March 20, 2024.
10. Tech diplomacy and Critical Technologies: Case of the LEO satellite internet - Science Direct, 2025.
11. How Barriers to Cross-Border Data Flows Are Spreading Globally, What They Cost, and How to Address Them - Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, December 4, 2024.
12. Global Governance of LEO Satellite Broadband - Internet Society Foundation, August 12, 2022.
13. What is digital sovereignty and how are countries approaching it? - World Economic Forum, 2025.

VPN Solutions for Data Sovereignty

14. Data Sovereignty and Data Residency Communications Involving Low Earth Orbit Satellites - Technical Disclosure Commons, July 19, 2022.
15. Understanding VPNs over Broadband Satellite - BusinessCom Networks, April 23, 2022.

Blockchain Solutions for Data Sovereignty

16. A Blockchain-Based Authentication Protocol Using Cryptocurrency Technology in LEO Satellite Networks - MDPI Electronics, 2021.
17. Blockchain in satellite communications - WIPO Technology Trends - World Intellectual Property Organization, 2023.
18. Blockchains in Space: The Internet of Things Will Run on a LEO Satellite Network - HackerNoon, February 27, 2018.
19. Blockchain: The Next Big Disruptor in Space - Via Satellite, November 2019.
20. A Blockchain-based Privacy Protection Protocol using Smart Contracts in LEO satellite networks - Springer Peer-to-Peer Networking and Applications, January 24, 2024.
21. A Sharded Blockchain-Based Secure Federated Learning Framework for LEO Satellite Networks - arXiv, 2023.

What are your thoughts on how Pacific Island nations should balance traditional infrastructure investments with emerging satellite technologies? Share your perspective in the comments below.