We often hear about WHERE might Bitcoin peak in this Bull Market…
But we rarely talk about WHEN they might happen.
Let’s take a look at the curious role of time in the context of each of Bitcoin’s Halvings
Bitcoin Halving 1
How many days did Bitcoin bottom before its first ever Halving?
378 days.
How many days did Bitcoin top out after its first ever Halving?
364 days…
It took roughly the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to Halving #1 (i.e. 378 days) as it took for Bitcoin to rally before topping out after its second post-Halving #1 Market Cycle (i.e. 364 days).
Bitcoin Halving 2
This curious role of time prior to and after Halving #1 is also evident in the context of Halving #2:
How many days did Bitcoin bottom before its second Halving?
546 days.
How many days did Bitcoin top out after its second Halving?
518 days…
It took roughly the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to Halving #2 (i.e. 546 days) as it took for Bitcoin to rally before topping out after its second post-Halving #1 Market Cycle (i.e. 518 days).
Based on Halving 1 and Halving 2…
It takes approximately the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to the Halving event as it takes to peak afterthe Halving event.
Bitcoin Halving 3
What if this curious role of time continues in the context of Halving #3?
Bitcoin bottomed 511 days before Halving 3.
So if it takes Bitcoin 511 days after the Halving to peak…
Bitcoin will top out in early Q4, 2021.
Specifically — in October 2021
Bitcoin To Peak In Q4, 2021?
The Bitcoin Four Year Cycle theory appears to support this:
The 4-Year Cycle suggests that Bitcoin will experience exponential growth in 2021 (i.e. Candle 1) and peak before the end of the year.
After all — every Candle 1 has a short upside wick, demonstrating that price closes lower than peak.
While historically recurring price tendencies carry more weight over such temporal observations - this curious role of time in the context of Bitcoin’s Halvings should not be understated.
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Previously published at https://rektcapital.substack.com/p/the-curious-role-of-time-for-bitcoin